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Heating with air source heat pumps is an important step in the transition to Net Zero Carbon for many households. When predicting the resulting energy consumption it is frequently assumed that heating demand is unchanged from before the switch from gas heating. However, heating patterns usually change, with a net increase in heating demand to achieve the same level of thermal comfort. This paper discusses the change in pattern and uses modelling to determine the resulting increase in energy demand. It shows that the increase can be predicted with information about dwelling heat loss and thermal mass as well as weather and the pre and post switch heating pattern. The increase can be 20% or more for homes with high heat loss. It proposes that the metric for heating demand increase would be a useful measure of heat pump readiness, and that the parameters required to assess this should be provided on energy performance certificates.
Terry et al. (Fri,) studied this question.