Informing sustainable energy policy in developing countries: An assessment of decarbonization pathways in Colombia using open energy system optimization modelling

Colombia is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 51 % by 2030 as part of the Paris Agreement, with a further goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The energy sector accounts for one-third of net GHG emissions in the country; thus, its decarbonization is crucial to accomplish these targets. In this study, we assess plausible decarbonization pathways using an open-source national energy system optimization model (OSeMOSYS). We build three scenarios over 2021–2050 and contrast them in terms of emissions, energy consumption, technology deployment, costs, and benefits. The results show that a decarbonized energy system can reduce carbon intensity by 93 %, energy intensity by 44 %, fossil fuel imports by 90 %, and provide socioeconomic benefits equivalent to 21 % of the Colombia's 2021 GDP. We use these results to recommend milestones and policy actions that can help inform policymakers about cost-effective strategies to achieve a sustainable, efficient, and more resilient energy system by mid-century. Our transparent and systematic methodology provides a tool for long-term energy planning in Colombia which can also be replicated in other developing countries for assessing decarbonization pathways.