Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates

Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve depending on climate change and socio-economic development, entailing significant uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risks is thus vital for robust decision-making and model improvement. However, the outcomes of such uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are tied to the chosen model setup, warranting caution in interpretation and extrapolation. Our study investigates how four distinct tropical cyclone hazard models and alternate representations of socio-economic development influence future tropical cyclone risk. We find that average tropical cyclone risk will increase 1-5 % by 2050 across all models and global study regions. The estimated maximum risk increases by 2100, in contrast, ranging from 10-400 % depending on the hazard model choice. The dominant source of uncertainty in these risk estimates changes with the specific risk model setup. Finally, we differentiate between aleatory, epistemic, and normative uncertainties, offering guidance to reduce these uncertainties and provide better-informed decision-making.