Marker selection strategies for circulating tumor DNA guided by phylogenetic inference

Abstract Motivation Blood-based profiling of tumor DNA (“liquid biopsy”) has offered great prospects for non-invasive early cancer diagnosis, treatment monitoring, and clinical guidance, but require further advances in computational methods to become a robust quantitative assay of tumor clonal evolution. We propose new methods to better characterize tumor clonal dynamics from circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), through application to two specific questions: 1) How to apply longitudinal ctDNA data to refine phylogeny models of clonal evolution, and 2) how to quantify changes in clonal frequencies that may be indicative of treatment response or tumor progression. We pose these questions through a probabilistic framework for optimally identifying maximum likelihood markers and applying them to characterizing clonal evolution. Results We first estimate a distribution over plausible clonal lineage models, using bootstrap samples over pre-treatment tissue-based sequence data. We then refine these lineage models and the clonal frequencies they imply over successive longitudinal samples. We use the resulting framework for modeling and refining tree distributions to pose a set of optimization problems to select ctDNA markers to maximize measures of utility capturing ability to solve the two questions of reducing uncertain in phylogeny models or quantifying clonal frequencies given the models. We tested our methods on synthetic data and showed them to be effective at refining distributions of tree models and clonal frequencies so as to minimize measures of tree distance relative to the ground truth. Application of the tree refinement methods to real tumor data further demonstrated their effectiveness in refining a clonal lineage model and assessing its clonal frequencies. The work shows the power of computational methods to improve marker selection, clonal lineage reconstruction, and clonal dynamics profiling for more precise and quantitative assays of tumor progression. Availability https://github.com/CMUSchwartzLab/Mase-phi.git . Contact russells@andrew.cmu.edu