Coupling of Changing Trends in Population and Construction Land in Traditional Rural Areas and Spatial Patterns in Urban–Rural Development, 2016–2021: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province, China

Achieving the goal of integrated urban–rural development is to achieve a spatially balanced development of the constituent elements of urban–rural relations in China. Rural populations and land dedicated to construction are the main components of the countryside in traditional agricultural areas; they play an important role in the development of the countryside itself in terms of urban and rural land use and in the formation of urban and rural development patterns. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal changes in rural populations and construction land at the township level, alongside assessing various forms and the extent of coupled development. Herein, we consider the role of urban–rural attractiveness and propose a framework for relationships between urban and rural development based on different forms of coupled development; a model of urban–rural forces is constructed to determine spatial patterns of urban–rural development at the township level that may transpire in the future. Our study shows that the rural population and construction land in the study area are characterized by significant spatial and temporal dynamics, indicating that traditional rural areas are in a process of rapid development and change. The results of our measurements of township-level coupling indicate that there exist four development patterns within urban–rural development: the A-type is most likely to produce new cities or satellite towns in the future and form new urban areas; the B-type is the area most likely to cease and be annexed to other villages or cities to meet building targets; the C-type comprises areas to be focused on in the future to attract populations and strictly control the growth of rural construction land areas (to avoid land transforming into the B-type); and the D-type refers to lands upon which regional township centers may develop in the future, becoming an area devoted to rural revitalization. The A-type and D-type are prioritized for the allocation of construction land, which can be contracted from types B and C. The results of this study have provided important reference for the formulation of population and construction land control policies in accordance with local conditions and the realization of integrated urban and rural development strategies.