An Econometric Study of Egyptian Agricultural Trade Exchange with the BRICSB: Reality and Potential

The research aimed to study agricultural trade exchange between Egypt and the BRICS bloc during the period (2010-2023), to determine an export policy that enhances agricultural exchange between them, especially after Egypt's recent accession to the bloc. The most important results were as follows:According to the results of partial demand systems (FMOLS, DOLS, Panel ARDL models), Egyptian cereal imports from BRICS countries are more sensitive to the real effective exchange rate, followed by the real GDP, meaning that by increasing each of them by 1%, the real value of Egyptian imports increases to about 3,849 and 3,692 million dollars, respectively, while Egyptian cereal imports decrease to about 3,509 million dollars with an increase in the customs tariff rate of 1%. Egypt's meat imports are also more sensitive to Egypt's real GDP, followed by the real effective exchange rate, meaning that with a 1% increase in Egypt's GDP, the real value of Egyptian meat imports increases by about 3.61 million dollars, an increase estimated at about 126 thousand dollars over the average of the study period.According to the results of integrated demand systems (LA/AIDS), Egyptian oranges are considered a necessary commodity in the Russian market. They are also considered a commodity with inelastic demand in the same market. There is a substitution relationship between Egyptian oranges and their competitors (Morocco and Turkey) in the Russian market, and a substitution relationship between Egyptian oranges and their competitors (Morocco and Turkey) in the Russian market. Substitution between Egyptian oranges and oranges imported from (US and Spain) in the Chinese market, and a substitution relationship between Egypt and both the Netherlands and Israel at the level of potato imports from the Russian market. As for Egyptian strawberries, it is a necessary commodity in Russia and South Africa and has inelastic demand within South Africa. Egyptian strawberries and all their competitors (Peru, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan) in Russia, and a substitution relationship between Egyptian strawberries and Italian strawberries in South Africa.