Logistic Risks Analysis in Conditions of Cargo Flow Reorientation in the Eastern Direction

The Russian market for logistics services is undergoing significant changes. In the context of political pressure from a number of foreign countries and the imposition of a large number of sanctions against the Russian Federation, as well as taking into account the differences in the needs of individual regions and the characteristics of foreign trade relations, there is a sharp reorientation of cargo flows in the eastern direction. Such dramatic changes in supply chains occur in parallel with a significant increase in logistics risks, which raises the issue of their timely and comprehensive analysis. Taking into account the peculiarities of the geographical location of the Russian Federation, railway transport, along with road transport, plays a vital role in organizing the transportation process of various types of goods. Therefore, the analysis of open data from official sources on the transportation of container cargo through the network of JSC Russian Railways was chosen as the methodological basis of the paper. Based on data from the container shipping market, an analysis of existing logistics risks, as well as the factors that provoke their emergence, is provided. The key risks in logistics include transport, warehouse, procurement and distribution logistics risks, and uncertainty, chance and resistance are identified as the main factors of their occurrence. The paper outlines the importance of minimizing logistics risks when organizing the transportation process in the eastern direction of Russia and provides a number of ways to reduce the likelihood of risk occurrence. One of these methods is risk dissipation. The implementation of this method is shown by the example of the implementation of an organizational group of activities at the Eastern training ground, which allows reducing the load on the railway and port infrastructure. As a result, the likelihood of risk occurring in logistics processes is reduced.