Predicting urban tomorrow: CA-Markov modeling and district evolution

Abstract The global population is experiencing exponential growth, resulting in a substantial increase in urbanization and subsequent urban expansion. This uncontrolled expansion, often termed urban sprawl, poses significant challenges to sustainable urban development. Understanding the importance of this concern, obtaining precise information about changes in Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) becomes crucial. This research examines the transformative processes of LULC and urban expansion over a 20-year period in two distinct study areas. For this purpose, built-up areas are first analysed using satellite-derived land surface temperature data, revealing temperature increase over time attributed to urban expansion. To project future trends using CA-Markov model, the suitability maps for each LULC class aggregated through the Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method. Subsequently, the CA-Markov simulates the LULC maps for 2017 and 2018 for each study area, with a focus on the year 2050. Model calibrated by comparing the simulated maps with the actual maps in both study areas, and the reliability is affirmed by high Kappa coefficients (> 80%). Consequently, the study predicts LULC maps for 2050, revealing that both areas will experience a continued increase in built-up areas, a decrease in forested areas, and a relative stability in agricultural zones over the next 33 years.