Re-thinking the sustainability of sovereign debt

Abstract This article explores the contributions that law can make to the development of a holistic approach to sovereign debt sustainability. We focus on debt sustainability assessments (DSAs) conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are linked to the IMF’s surveillance and lending functions, and determine whether it is necessary to restructure the debt of a country in debt distress and the timing, process, and terms of such a debt restructuring. While the precise causes of each country’s debt situation are unique, all countries are grappling with the rising costs and growing risks posed by climate change and other environmental and social factors. We suggest that the IMF’s current treatment of these environmental and social factors is opaque, unpredictable, and hard for the citizens of affected countries and other outsiders to understand. It also obscures the true burden that debt obligations impose on a sovereign and the country’s residents, and, thus, the amount of debt relief that it may need in order to achieve a sustainable debt position. To address these shortcomings, we identify financial, economic, environmental, and social (FEES) factors that we contend should be incorporated in the design of the frameworks governing DSAs and the operating principles and practices of the IMF through which DSAs are conducted. We argue that the IMF should draw on various hard and soft sources of international and transnational law to develop a FEES-based approach to sovereign debt sustainability that is more consistent, predictable, and legitimate than the current approach.