Multidecadal Changes of the Seasonal Potential Predictability of Winter PNA and Associated Circulation Anomalies

Abstract Utilizing ensemble hindcast data from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) spanning the years 1900–2014, the multidecadal changes in the seasonal potential predictability of the winter Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern and associated circulation anomalies have been investigated by using an information-based metric of relative entropy and the method of the most predictable component analysis. Results show that the seasonal potential predictability of winter PNA has significant multidecadal changes, with values much higher at the two ends of the twentieth century and much lower in between particularly in the 1930s and 1940s. The changes in the seasonal potential predictability of winter PNA are mostly reflected by the temporal evolutions of PNA rather than the location changes of active centers. Further, the changes are mostly contributed by the external forcing of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature anomalies in tropical central and eastern Pacific. In particular, the combined effects of lower amplitudes, reduced persistence, and a more eastward shift in warming centers lead to the reduced seasonal potential predictability of PNA and associated circulation changes in the 1930s and 1940s. Significance Statement Seasonal prediction of the winter Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern and associated circulation anomalies is very important due to its profound climate impacts. Understanding the multidecadal fluctuations and its driving sources of the potential predictability of winter PNA and associated circulation anomalies are meaningful for skillful seasonal prediction of winter PNA and circulation anomalies as well as related climate variations. This study for the first time shows that the multidecadal fluctuations of the potential predictability of winter PNA are quite significant and the changes are mostly reflected by its temporal evolutions rather than spatial shifts of active centers. Furthermore, this study shows that the strength, persistence, and warming center locations of ENSO-related sea surface temperatures in tropical Pacific play a crucial role on the multidecadal changes of the potential predictability of winter PNA and associated circulation anomalies.