Superiority of the triglyceride glucose index over the homeostasis model in predicting metabolic syndrome based on NHANES data analysis

The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a simple and inexpensive new marker of insulin resistance that is being increasingly used for the clinical prediction of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Nevertheless, there are only a few comparative studies on its predictive capacity for MetS versus those using the traditional homeostasis model assessment (HOMA). We conducted a cross-sectional study using a database from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999 March to 2020 pre-pandemic period). Using statistical methods, we compared the predictive abilities of the TyG index and HOMA (including HOMA of insulin resistance HOMA-IR and HOMA of beta-cell function HOMA-β) for MetS. A total of 34,195 participants were enrolled and divided into the MetS group (23.1%) or no MetS group (76.9%) according to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) diagnostic criteria. After applying weighted data, the baseline characteristics of the population were described. Following the exclusion of medication influences, the final count was 31,304 participants. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that while distinguishing between MetS and no MetS, the TyG index had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.827 (sensitivity = 71.9%, specificity = 80.5%), and the cutoff was 8.75, slightly outperforming HOMA-IR (AUC = 0.784) and HOMA-β (AUC = 0.614) with a significance of P < 0.01. The prevalence of MetS in the total population calculated using the TyG index cutoff value was 30.9%, which was higher than that reported in the IDF diagnostic criteria. Weighted data analysis using univariate and multivariate logistic regression displayed an independent association between elevated TyG and HOMA-IR with the risk of MetS. Subgroup analysis further revealed differences in the predictive ability of the TyG index among adult populations across various genders and ethnicities, whereas such differences were not observed for children and adolescents. The TyG index is slightly better than HOMA in predicting MetS and may identify more patients with MetS; thus, its applications in a clinical setting can be appropriately increased.