Military Effectiveness and Naval Warfare

Military effectiveness created a growth in political science literature. However, this work focused overwhelmingly on continental warfare. China's rise highlights naval warfare. Do the central findings of the literature hold for war at sea? We explore this question by comparing naval and land combat patterns via a new dataset on interstate surface naval battles fought between 1649 and 1988. We find essential differences deriving from the contrasting nature of the sea and land as military environments, which have made naval outcomes more sensitive to materiel, quicker, and more one-sided. There are, however, also important similarities involving material–nonmaterial interactions. These features pose important implications for policy on future anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) warfare in East Asia, the balance of investment in skill and materiel in naval resource allocation, and research on military effectiveness.