A Methodological Benchmark in Determining the Urban Growth: Spatiotemporal Projections for Eskişehir, Türkiye

Abstract Urban growth changes spatial uses over time due to different dynamics. These processes cause many physical, environmental, and socioeconomic problems, such as climate change, pollution, and population-related events. Therefore, it is essential to predict future urban expansion to produce effective policies in sustainable urban planning and make long-term plans. Many models, such as dynamic, statistical, and Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-MC) models, are used in geographic information system (GIS) environments to meet the high-performance requirements of land use modeling. This study estimated the growth of settled areas in Eskişehir city center using models developed using two different methods. In this context, settled areas in the city center were examined within the scope of 1990–2018, and the growth areas of settled areas in 2046 were predicted using the CA-Markov method in Model 1: Quantum GIS (QGIS) MOLUSCE plugin and Model 2: IDRISI Selva. While settled areas are continuously increasing, other urban areas are decreasing. Model 1 predicts an increase of 1195 ha in settled areas by 2046, while Model 2 predicts an increase of 45,022 ha. At the same time, it is concluded that settled areas will grow in a central location in Model 1, while they will spread in an east-west extension in Model 2. The study results show that QGIS-based modeling predicts more limited spatial growth than IDRISI Selva. The research interprets growth in terms of the staging of urban services, the population size of neighboring cities, distances, and income levels based on the internal and external dynamics of the city.