Toward a Comprehensive Grid of Cepheid Models with MESA. I. Uncertainties of the Evolutionary Tracks of Intermediate-mass Stars

Abstract Helium-burning stars, in particular Cepheids, are especially difficult to model, as the choice of free parameters can greatly impact the shape of the blue loops—the part of the evolutionary track at which the instability strip is crossed. Contemporary one-dimensional stellar evolution codes, like Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics ( MESA ), come with a large number of free parameters that allow us to model the physical processes in stellar interiors under many assumptions. The uncertainties that arise from this freedom are rarely discussed in the literature despite their impact on the evolution of the model. We calculate a grid of evolutionary models with MESA , varying several controls, like solar mixture of heavy elements, mixing-length theory prescription, nuclear reaction rates, the scheme to determine convective boundaries, atmosphere model, and temporal and spatial resolution, and quantify their impact on age and location of the evolutionary track on the H-R diagram from the main sequence until the end of core helium burning. Our investigation was conducted for a full range of masses and metallicities expected for classical Cepheids. The uncertainties are significant, especially during core helium burning, reaching or exceeding the observational uncertainties of log T eff and log L for detached eclipsing binary systems. For ≥9 M ⊙ models, thin convective shells develop and evolve erratically, not allowing the models to converge. A careful inspection of Kippenhahn diagrams and convergence study is advised for a given mass and metallicity, to assess how severe this problem is and to what extent it may affect the evolution.