Age-stratified comparison of heart age and predicted cardiovascular risk in 370 000 primary care patients

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) preventive medications are recommended for patients at high short-term CVD risk. As most younger people with multiple raised CVD risk factors levels have low short-term risk, they could be falsely reassured to take no action. Heart age-the chronological age of a hypothetical person with the same short-term absolute CVD risk as the patient being assessed, but with an 'ideal' risk profile-is a complementary relative CVD risk metric developed to encourage these younger patients to make long-term lifestyle changes. However, clinicians sometimes use heart age to inform medication decisions. We assessed the appropriateness of this practice by comparing heart age and short-term CVD risk. METHODS: New Zealand primary care patients are recruited to the PREDICT cohort when their CVD risk is assessed. PREDICT is an ongoing prospective study in one-third of New Zealand general practices, designed to derive CVD risk prediction algorithms. Five-year CVD risk was calculated for 35-74-year-old PREDICT participants using published equations. Heart age was calculated using non-smoking, systolic blood pressure of 120 mm Hg and total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio of 3.5, as the 'ideal' risk profile. CVD risk and heart age gaps (difference between chronological age and heart age) were compared. RESULTS: Among 371 676 PREDICT participants, 5-year CVD risk increased with age, approximately doubling every 10 years, whereas heart age gaps decreased with increasing age, approximately halving between 35 and 44-year olds and 65-74-year olds. There were 5-40-year heart age gap differences between groups with similar 5-year CVD risks, but different ages. CONCLUSION: Short-term CVD risk and heart age are not interchangeable risk metrics. Short-term risk increases with increasing age whereas heart age gaps generally decline, with major differences between younger and older people with similar short-term risk. If heart age is used to inform medication decisions rather than encourage long-term lifestyle changes, older people at high short-term risk could be undertreated and younger people at low short-term risk could be unnecessarily medicated.