Finding space for rewilding: participatory scenarios reveal ecological opportunities based on plural values of nature

ABSTRACT Rewilding aims to restore degraded ecosystems in human-dominated areas by promoting self-sustained ecosystems and reducing human control over ecological processes. However, co-benefits and trade-offs between rewilding actions and the interests of local societies must be thoroughly considered. IPBES proposed the Nature Futures framework, a scenario tool to engage society in conservation planning. However, its potential for co-designing ecological restoration remains to be explored. This paper presents a novel methodology that utilises the Nature Futures Framework to address opportunities, co-benefits and trade-offs using rewilding. The study aims to investigate the Nature futures Framework effectiveness in rewilding by involving stakeholders in participatory scenario development. To accomplish this, we conducted stakeholder interviews to co-design three distinct scenarios that reflect diverse values of nature and rewilding strategies for the German Oder Delta. The scenario development process identified spatial priorities for three scenarios: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society (NfS) and Nature as Culture. (NaC). The first, focused on rewilding and increasing forest and river connectivity across 65.8% of the study area. NfS narratives covering 14.4% of the area emphasised de-intensification of forestry and reflooding of peatlands, while NaC prioritised transformation towards extensive agriculture and reflooding for paludiculture across 8.6%. The study identified regions with single and multiple values of nature. Further, there were regions of overlap between scenarios, highlighting the interconnectedness of different rewilding actions and priorities. By pinpointing corresponding values, the research highlighted actions that could result in co-benefits. The findings emphasise the importance of considering pluralistic values when designing rewilding actions, which encourages stakeholders to highlight areas of less resistance to rewilding and co-adapt to the changes in the landscape. This study presents a methodological framework for participatory scenario development for rewilding initiatives. By combining participatory processes with the Nature Futures Framework, our structured approach helps identify priority areas and navigate socio-ecological challenges in landscape restoration. It employs participatory mapping to aid the visualization of land-use changes and aligning rewilding actions with ecological and societal needs. This approach enhances governance frameworks and promotes inclusive rewilding efforts, creating a replicable model for landscape restoration that connects rewilding with sustainability and societal well-being goals.