Quantitative Risk Assessment of Liquefied Natural Gas Bunkering Hoses in Maritime Operations: A Case of Shenzhen Port

The widespread adoption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel has driven the development of LNG bunkering operations in global ports. Major international hubs, such as Shenzhen Port, have implemented ship-to-ship (STS) bunkering practices. However, this process entails unique safety risks, particularly hazards associated with vapor cloud dispersion caused by bunkering hose releases. This study employs the Phast software developed by DNV to systematically simulate LNG release scenarios during STS operations, integrating real-world meteorological data and storage conditions. The dynamic effects of transfer flow rates, release heights, and release directions on vapor cloud dispersion are quantitatively analyzed under daytime and nighttime conditions. The results demonstrate that transfer flow rate significantly regulates dispersion range, with recommendations to limit the rate below 1500 m3/h and prioritize daytime operations to mitigate risks. Release heights exceeding 10 m significantly amplify dispersion effects, particularly at night (nighttime dispersion area at a height of 20 m is 3.5 times larger than during the daytime). Optimizing release direction effectively suppresses dispersion, with vertically downward releases exhibiting minimal impact. Horizontal releases require avoidance of downwind alignment, and daytime operations are prioritized to reduce lateral dispersion risks.