Dynamic Integrated Model for Sustainable Solid Waste Management in Bengkulu City

Rapid urbanization and increased consumption patterns have intensified municipal solid waste (MSW) challenges in developing cities. This study applies a system dynamics model to project waste generation, management costs, and landfill requirements in Bengkulu City, Indonesia, over a 20-year period. Four scenarios were simulated: business-as-usual, minimum (25%), moderate (50%), and optimistic (65%) waste reduction. The model integrates critical parameters including population growth, waste generation rates, recycling capacity, and community participation. Results indicate that without intervention, cumulative waste volume will overwhelm landfill capacity and escalate operational costs. Conversely, implementing waste reduction strategies—such as strengthening source separation, expanding composting and waste banks, adopting advanced technologies, and enforcing supportive policies—substantially reduces landfill dependency and operational expenses. The optimistic scenario demonstrates the highest efficiency, reducing required landfill land by over 85% and significantly lowering management costs. This study highlights the importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration, digital monitoring integration, and circular economy principles in urban waste governance. The model offers a practical decision-support framework for policymakers aiming to develop resilient, inclusive, and sustainable waste management systems in similar urban contexts.