Summary Current geodetic velocities show that over half (up to 10 mm/yr) of Arabia-Eurasia shortening in the west is accommodated within a relatively narrow zone across the Kura basin of Azerbaijan, in which the most prominent active structure is the Kura fold-and-thrust belt, bordering the southern margin of the Greater Caucasus. The GNSS velocities furthermore suggest equivalent amounts of north-south right-lateral shear across the eastern Kura basin along the West Caspian fault zone that is accommodating relative motion between the Kura basin and the South Caspian basin. Although destructive historical earthquakes are known to have occurred, their spread is restricted geographically and their moment release accounts for only half of the accumulated deformation. These observations can be explained by incompleteness of the historical record, that the faults fail in rare larger earthquakes, or that they slip aseismically. To distinguish between these hypotheses we produce an InSAR velocity field using Sentinel-1 SAR data to image active tectonic deformation within the Kura basin of Azerbaijan. Tectonic signals are superimposed on those relating to non-tectonic processes, including widespread mud volcano inflation that highlights the important role of fluid flow within the basin sediments. We show aseismic creep occurs on two parallel faults of the West Caspian fault zone, and infer this also on the Kura Fold and Thrust Belt from sharp gradients in velocity indicating active fold growth. Recent paleoseismic studies of the faults imaged here indicate discrete slip events, and we speculate that the creep may be episodic, perhaps triggered by deeper earthquake events or by periods of enhanced fluid mobilisation. Together, the right-lateral and left-lateral faults appear to accommodate a large-scale expulsion of the Absheron region towards the South Caspian basin, perhaps driven by gravitational potential energy contrasts.
Johnson et al. (Fri,) studied this question.