Complex systems such as cities, energy grids, or the global climate have many plausible futures. Scenarios, or structured narratives of decision-relevant futures, are a common decision support tool for making the complexity and uncertainties of complex systems humanly interpretable. However, the effectiveness of scenario-based decision support depends in part on the usefulness of the selected scenarios. Here we show an optimization-based approach for generating scenarios that are specifically designed to be diverse, plausible, and comprehensive. We establish the advantages of our method by evaluating it against three previously proposed methods: scenario matrices, generic archetypes, and clustering. Our case study is Schelling’s segregation model, a tractable yet behaviorally rich simulation of a complex system. Our results show the proposed optimization-based approach can generate more diverse, plausible, and comprehensive scenarios than existing approaches. The resulting scenarios may provide a more insightful and robust basis for policy decisions, especially for complex systems with emergent behavior or where substantial uncertainties are present. ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION MAY 2025; FULL ARTICLE AVAILABLE SOON
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Patrick Steinmann
Judith A. Verstegen
Utrecht University
George van Voorn
Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling
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Steinmann et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
synapsesocial.com/papers/68af6216ad7bf08b1eae37c9 — DOI: https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18823