Gray Area: Population Aging and Immigration Attitudes in Japan

ABSTRACT Japan is one of the world’s fastest aging societies, with projections showing a population decline of almost 40 million people as the country grays during the next 40 years. By the end of this period, those aged 65 and older will comprise almost 40% of the population. Despite efforts to boost fertility rates and millions of septuagenarians working full-time, Japan remains one of the least receptive immigration destinations. In this study, we investigate how information about these demographic trends affect attitudes toward immigration. In a survey experiment with 1,000 Japanese voters, we evaluate the impact of exposing participants to demographic data on aging and its implications. The prime results in a 10-percentage-point increase in immigration support for the treatment group. Younger, urban respondents responded positively and elderly and rural respondents reacted less positively. Follow-up interview-based fieldwork reveals that restrictionist subgroups view a shrinking population as vulnerable to increased immigration, whereas other participants are less concerned with identity issues and more concerned with economic competitiveness. Taken together, this research provides a new understanding of Japan’s unique perceptions of immigration policy relative to peer countries, which may foreshadow political developments in Western democracies that are becoming increasingly xenophobic and increasingly older.