The Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland as a Potential Strategic Leader in the Military Security of the European Union

Abstract In the face of fundamental changes in the European security architecture caused by the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the potential of the Polish Armed Forces to assume the role of a strategic leader in the area of military security of the European Union is becoming apparent. The results of the study indicate that Poland, by allocating over 4% of its GDP to defence and implementing a programme to expand its armed forces to 300,000 soldiers, has become the undisputed leader in defence investment in Europe. Modernisation programmes in the land forces, air forces and air defence in the short term will give the Polish Armed Forces an advantage on the eastern flank. A public opinion poll confirmed almost unanimous support (98%) for increasing military spending, which constitutes a strong political mandate. At the same time, an information gap was identified, as the assessment of the current development of the armed forces is much more moderate. In conclusion, it was stated that the Polish Armed Forces have all the prerequisites to become a military leader in the EU, but transforming this potential into real leadership requires maintaining a high level of funding at least until 2030, developing the domestic defence industry, investing in human capital and actively participating in EU defence initiatives. Poland's fulfilment of this role could measurably strengthen European strategic autonomy and the cohesion of the North Atlantic Alliance.