This paper examines India's geopolitical role in today's shifting global order through the lens of political realism. Rather than idealistic or normative approaches, it emphasizes the cold-eyed calculus of power, national interest, and security imperatives. India has everything it takes to emerge as a pivotal player in any new hegemonic configuration-provided it preserves its strategic autonomy. It is the world's most populous nation, has the fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP, possesses a credible nuclear deterrent, and occupies a commanding position along the Indo-Pacific Rimland. This gives it a rare combination of continental ("tellurocratic") and maritime ("thalassocratic") advantages. The paper outlines five plausible scenarios for India's future international positioning: a close strategic partnership with the United States, largely driven by the shared goal of balancing China; a deepening of traditional ties with Russia in support of a multipolar world order; strict adherence to nonalignment or permanent neutrality; a drift toward regional instability, especially in the event of renewed conflict with Pakistan; a genuine strategic alignment with China, which remains undermined by unresolved border disputes and massive trade imbalances. The analysis concludes that India's ability to shape the emerging global order will ultimately hinge on whether its political leadership can formulate and sustain a coherent, independent, and far-sighted foreign policy-one that prevents the country from being reduced to a mere instrument of existing or aspiring hegemons.
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Ivor Altaras Penda
China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies
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Ivor Altaras Penda (Wed,) studied this question.
synapsesocial.com/papers/6932311e8e51979591dce41a — DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/s2377740025500198