A Comparative Analysis of High Skilled and Low Skilled Mexican Migration to the United States, 1970–2017

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the trends and determinants of high skilled and low skilled Mexican migration to the US from 1970 to 2017. I used retrospective life history data from the Mexican Migration Project to (1) analyze the probability of a first migration from Mexico to the US for high skilled Mexicans relative to their low skilled counterparts, and (2) identify individual and contextual determinants of both migration flows. Results from discrete-time event-history models reveal that the likelihood of US migration for high skilled Mexicans has not followed a linear, upward trend. High skilled migration has historically been smaller than low skilled migration, with two exceptions: during the 1980s and recently since the mid-2010s. At the individual level, human, social, and physical capital are significant predictors of low skilled migration; in contrast, high skilled migration is mainly influenced by social capital. Contextual factors affect each group differently: high skilled migration responds to adverse economic conditions in Mexico and US labor market conditions, whereas low skilled migration is influenced by Mexican homicide rates, US immigration enforcement, and economic conditions in both countries. Overall, findings suggest that, until recently, highly educated workers have generally preferred to stay in Mexico than to emigrate.