Distributed Robust Optimization Scheduling for Integrated Energy Systems Based on Data-Driven and Green Certificate-Carbon Trading Mechanisms

High renewable energy penetration in Integrated Energy Systems (IES) introduces significant challenges related to bilateral source-load uncertainty and low-carbon economic dispatch. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel scheduling framework that synergizes data-driven scenario generation with multi-objective distributionally robust optimization (DRO). Specifically, a deep temporal feature extraction model based on Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder (LSTM-AE) is integrated with K-Means clustering to generate four typical operation scenarios, effectively capturing complex source-load fluctuations. To further enhance system efficiency and environmental sustainability, a refined Power-to-Gas (P2G) model considering waste heat recovery is developed to realize energy cascading, coupled with a joint market mechanism that integrates Green Certificate Trading (GCT) and tiered carbon pricing. Building on this, a multi-objective DRO model based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is formulated to optimize the trade-off between operating costs and carbon emissions. Case studies based on California test data demonstrate that the proposed method reduces total operating costs by 9.0% and carbon emissions by 139.9 tons compared to traditional robust optimization (RO). Moreover, the results confirm that the system maintains operational safety even under extreme source-load fluctuation scenarios.