What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to evaluate how climate-driven sea level rise and storm tides affect coastal flooding in Kalamaria.

February 16, 2026Open Access

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flooding Due to Extreme Storm Tides Under Climate Change Projections in the 21st Century: Application to the Kalamaria Littoral Zone (N. Aegean Sea, Greece)

Key Points

The aim is to evaluate how climate-driven sea level rise and storm tides affect coastal flooding in Kalamaria.
Used high-resolution hydraulic simulations with the CoastFLOOD model.
Analyzed coastal sea level elevation extremes based on Med-CORDEX climate projections.
Assessed historical (1971–2005) and future (2021–2100) flooding scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios.
Predicted significant increases in inundation extent in Kalamaria.
Identified higher exposure risks for critical infrastructure and coastal assets.
Noted that population clusters will face increased flooding threats.

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate-driven Sea Level Rise (SLR) and extreme storm tides on coastal flooding in the urbanised littoral zone of Kalamaria (Thermaikos Gulf, Northern Aegean Sea). High-resolution hydraulic simulations using the CoastFLOOD model are driven by coastal Sea Level Elevation (SLE) extremes derived from simulated results based on the Med-CORDEX regional climate projections to assess historical (1971–2005) and future periods’ (2021–2055, 2066–2100) 50- and 100-year return levels under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. SLEs are derived from storm surges, the highest tidal ranges, and mean/max SLR scenarios for the 21st century. Results indicate substantial increases in inundation extent and exposure of critical infrastructure, coastal assets, and population clusters, highlighting the need for locally tailored adaptation strategies under climate uncertainty.

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