The February 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor examines how tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPPA) reshaped U.S. biofuel feedstock and finished biofuel imports during 2025, and it assesses what the trade data imply about diversion versus destruction in these markets. The analysis tracks import patterns for used cooking oil, tallow, canola oil, ethanol, and biodiesel through November 2025 under the layered IEEPA tariff regime, including China-specific duties, a broad baseline tariff, and later country-specific reciprocal rates. The data indicate that the dominant response in feedstock markets was trade diversion rather than a dramatic reduction in total volumes. Used cooking oil imports remained elevated relative to recent historical averages even as sourcing shifted away from China toward other suppliers facing lower tariff burdens. Tallow imports display a similar adjustment, with imports from Brazil declining sharply after the August 2025 country-specific tariff and shipments shifting toward suppliers such as Argentina, while cumulative import volumes remained strong. In aggregate across used cooking oil, tallow, and canola oil, imports from IEEPA countries tracked slightly above the prior year until October, suggesting the tariffs slowed the pace of imports but did not substantially reduce overall feedstock availability. Finished biofuel imports weakened alongside these changes, with ethanol imports declining after midyear and biodiesel imports falling sharply following the expiration of the blender’s tax credit and the shift to the production-only Section 45Z credit. The report also discusses how emerging policy changes may add additional headwinds for imported feedstocks beyond tariffs themselves.
Arita et al. (Thu,) studied this question.