Between Socioeconomic Decline and Lack of Political Competition: What Explains the Success of the AfD in North Rhine-Westphalia’s 2025 Integration Council Elections?

Abstract The electoral success of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in numerous municipalities during the 2025 integration council elections has drawn considerable public and media attention. Beyond the apparent paradox of immigrant voters supporting an anti-immigrant party, the substantial between-municipality variation in the AfD’s performance has prompted scholarly inquiry into its underlying causes. This study examines the determinants of variations in the AfD’s electoral success in the recent integration council elections. We employ indicators of structural economic grievances as explanatory factors while also examining the role of party competition from mainstream parties, which is often limited due to integration councils’ minimal political power. Drawing on data from 113 municipalities in North Rhine-Westphalia, we find evidence that the AfD’s electoral success is strongly associated with political opportunity factors. The AfD performs significantly better in municipalities with fewer competing mainstream parties. These findings contribute to the broader literature on immigrant voters and far-right party dynamics by demonstrating the critical role of political competition and active campaigning by democratic political parties and lists in mobilizing newly enfranchised voters for democratic politics—even in elections for largely symbolic political bodies.