Research on the management strategies for matching supply and demand in a major public health emergency (MPHE)

As one of the global disasters, the impact of infectious disease outbreaks is continuously expanding due to population growth, globalization, and environmental changes. In recent decades, from the Ebola outbreak in Africa to the global pandemic of COVID-19, and the spread of cholera and monkeypox, infectious disease events have become increasingly frequent, characterized by high uncertainty and widespread coverage. Major epidemics not only threaten human life and health but also profoundly impact lifestyles and socio-economic development. This presents heightened challenges for the demand response and supply assurance of anti-epidemic materials during epidemics. In this context, aiming to provide effective management guidance to the international community for more effectively safeguarding public health and stabilizing the economy in the face of potential future public health emergencies, this dissertation systematically analyzes the demand transmission mechanisms and provision policies of emergency materials during public health emergencies from the perspectives of demand respond and supply management, which carries out the following tasks: Firstly, this dissertation explores the critical factors in anti-epidemic material management and discusses the similarities and differences in the strategic orientation of epidemic material management between two countries with different political systems, cultural backgrounds, and healthcare systems. By collecting opinions data from experts in the related fields in China and Germany and using a combination method of Grey Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Grey-DEMATEL) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), this study provides policy recommendations for the formulation and implementation of epidemic material management in both countries. Through this, a comprehensive understanding of the prevalent challenges in anti-epidemic material provision at both the demand and supply sides was achieved. Research findings reveal strategic thinking differences between the two countries in stabilizing demand, ensuring supply and enhancing matching of supply and demand. Meanwhile, this work provides a solid empirical foundation for the subsequent theoretical exploration of this dissertation. Next, based on the comprehensive analysis mentioned above, this dissertation studies the demand transmission mechanism of anti-epidemic material, verifying and emphasizing the importance of guiding rational demand for epidemic materials and monitoring changes in the quantity of centralized material storages. By establishing an "information-epidemic-resource" three-layer complex network model, this study reveals internal mechanisms of demand changes for protective materials and cure-focused materials during epidemics. It is found that the demand for anti-epidemic materials is not only affected by the infected scale, but also by public behaviors such as information dissemination and travel mobility. Moreover, protective resources are more susceptible to fluctuations in demand due to misinformation dissemination and epidemic prevention levels compared to therapeutic resources. This study also finds that strengthening self-protection can reduce fluctuations in individual material holdings, while effective restrictive measures can reduce fluctuations in centralized storages, alleviating the pressure on provision in storage centers. Finally, the dissertation further proposes a multi-objective optimization concept for anti-epidemic provision, considering not only people's safety and health but also economic stability. To this end, this dissertation conducts a study on the macroeconomic impacts of anti-epidemic provision policies by considering the heterogeneity of network nodes and developing a "virus-materials" macroeconomic network model to comprehensively assess the impact of four types of anti-epidemic provision policies—vaccine development, priority vaccination, material replenishment, and mutual aid behaviors—on the macroeconomic level during the epidemic. This study reveals that specific provision strategies indeed contribute to the reduction of infection scale, increase in consumption, or enhancement of utility. This study also finds that population aging would reduce the aggregate consumption and utility, but implementing the optimal anti-epidemic provision policy will not negatively affect the macroeconomy as the aging population deepens. Overall, this dissertation provides comprehensive management guidance and decision support for establishing demand response mechanisms and formulating provision policies of emergency materials during epidemics from three aspects of stabilizing demand, ensuring supply, and strengthening supply-demand matching. This is not only significant for enhancing national emergency management capabilities, but also helps the international community respond more effectively to potential future public health emergencies.