Abstract This paper analyzes the causal explanation of cultural change using Max Weber’s Protestantism thesis as a case study. We explore methods for identifying the causal impact of culture, highlighting challenges in operationalization and causal inference. This includes approaches such as regression discontinuity and instrumental variables and addresses issues such as confounding, selection, and measurement bias. Based on a reconstruction of Weber’s argument using Coleman’s widely used explanatory scheme, we review recent empirical studies that examine the impact of religious ideas on economic behavior. Our analysis shows that Weber’s original framework is more nuanced than the simplified hypotheses tested in modern empirical studies, even though these studies employ high-quality causal inference methods. This oversimplification distorts Weber’s thesis and creates ambiguity about which studies genuinely test it versus alternative hypotheses. To address misinterpretations of Weber’s framework, we propose three key improvements: first, a more precise conceptual foundation to clarify the theoretical framework; second, the triangulation of existing and novel data sources to better capture individual values and behaviors; and third, enhanced causal inference methods, including negative and positive controls, matching, and latent variable approaches, to reduce bias in causal inference. These refinements aim to provide a more precise causal explanation of cultural influences on economic behavior.
Roller et al. (Fri,) studied this question.