Risk Decision Making and Intertemporal Choice: Lessons from the Taiwan Strait

This article argues that domestic and political factors may incentivize US presidents to use risky military options to resolve crises quickly, though high costs or threats to long-term vital interests can overcome leaders’ natural tendencies to focus on the present. Recently declassified documents from President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s administration allow a detailed examination of how US leaders balanced risks over time during the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crises. The findings inform policy recommendations to enhance military planning and enable military advisers to communicate long-term risks more effectively to political leaders.