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This brief aims to analyze budgetary trends in the EU and Member States and their implications for climate finance.

March 12, 2026Open Access

Budgetary Trends in the European Union and its Member States and Implications for Climate Finance

Key Points

This brief aims to analyze budgetary trends in the EU and Member States and their implications for climate finance.
Analyzed budgetary trends from 2020 to 2025 within the EU and its Member States.
Projected future trends through 2034 based on current geopolitical and economic factors.
Evaluated the impact of these trends on obligations under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement.
EU and Member States have shifted budgets towards defence and energy security post-pandemic and conflict.
Climate finance is at risk of being deprioritized due to these shifts.
The EU's ability to meet international climate obligations may be compromised.

Abstract

This brief developed under SLYCAN Trust EU Work Programme examines the budgetary trends of the European Union (EU) and its 27 Member States from 2020 to 2025, and projects how trends through 2034 may affect international climate finance. Following theCOVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and global geopolitical tensions, EU and national budgets of Member States have increasingly shifted toward defence, energy security, and industrial competitiveness. As a result, climate finance risks being deprioritized, affecting the EU’s ability to fulfil its obligations under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement and support the scaling up of climate finance in line with the new collective quantified goal established at COP29.

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