Where to aim in soccer penalty kicks: Balancing strategy and execution

Penalty kicks are key moments in soccer, yet their success depends not only on strategic shot placement but also on a player’s ability to execute accurately under pressure. This study investigates how variability in kicking accuracy affects optimal aim during penalty kicks. Using data from 4299 penalties in Danish youth leagues and 1060 laboratory-measured kicks from academy players, we modeled the bivariate distribution of shot placement and applied Monte Carlo simulations to identify optimal aiming strategies. Results show that while top corners yield the highest scoring percentages on average, players with higher shot variability achieve better outcomes by aiming for more central and lower zones of the goal. Conversely, players with greater consistency can exploit more challenging placements for higher success rates. Additionally, the orientation of shot variability—horizontal versus vertical—affects the location of the optimal aim point. These findings suggest that effective penalty strategies should be individualized, taking into account each player’s performance profile. By bridging statistical models with practical execution data, this study provides actionable insights for players, coaches, and analysts aiming to improve penalty kick outcomes through tailored strategies.