Can AI Revive Japan's Productivity?: Technology Implementation Scenario to 2040

Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2602.This note examines the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Japan’s productivity under a technology implementation scenario to 2040. Using a growth accounting and general equilibrium framework, it evaluates how the diffusion of AI-related technologies across sectors—together with complementary investment, institutional reform, and stable electricity supply—affects total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth. The results suggest that productivity gains arise from the combined implementation of multiple technologies rather than a single innovation, with manufacturing playing a central role in driving economy-wide efficiency improvements.