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This research evaluates the impact of artificial intelligence on Japan's productivity until 2040.

March 30, 2026Open Access

Can AI Revive Japan's Productivity?: Technology Implementation Scenario to 2040

Key Points

This research evaluates the impact of artificial intelligence on Japan's productivity until 2040.
Evaluated AI's impact using growth accounting and general equilibrium frameworks.
Analyzed how AI technology diffusion across sectors influences productivity and economic growth.
Considered the effects of complementary investments and institutional reforms.
Findings indicate combined technology implementation yields greater productivity gains than individual innovations.
Manufacturing is central to driving efficiency improvements across the economy.

Abstract

Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2602.This note examines the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Japan’s productivity under a technology implementation scenario to 2040. Using a growth accounting and general equilibrium framework, it evaluates how the diffusion of AI-related technologies across sectors—together with complementary investment, institutional reform, and stable electricity supply—affects total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth. The results suggest that productivity gains arise from the combined implementation of multiple technologies rather than a single innovation, with manufacturing playing a central role in driving economy-wide efficiency improvements.

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Keio University

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