Challenges and Opportunities for National‐Scale Projections of Future Coastal Landscape Change

Abstract Local to global scale projections of future coastal landscape change are essential to improve land and resource management decisions that aim to prepare for and reduce risk exposure to impending coastal hazards. However, the availability of actionable knowledge is often limited due to the complexity of drivers of change, their consequences, and uncertainties that span disciplines. Varying spatial and temporal scales of physical processes that occur on landscapes with differing levels of coastal development and modification complicate decision‐making. This paper reviews advances in observational approaches, modeling, and quantification of uncertainty to support the next generation of coastal change projections. We also highlight transdisciplinary opportunities for making this information more accessible and useful to support decision‐making in the coastal zone. This includes consideration of different levels of user engagement to address specific needs, as well as resources and mechanisms that can support knowledge transfer broadly. A central recommendation is the development of a coordinated framework to support research integration including three components: accounting for relevant drivers, processes, and feedbacks; working with users to identify their information needs; and generating meaningful projections and uncertainty. Actions that would support such frameworks include the evaluation of models through coordinated research approaches and multi‐model comparisons; ongoing investments in observations and data‐driven approaches necessary to understand this complex environment; expansion of modeling capabilities using novel techniques; prioritization of co‐development efforts between researchers and users; and continued training and support for transdisciplinary research.