Water scarcity threatens food security in intensively irrigated regions. While alternative cropping systems are proposed as a solution, their long-term, quantitative impact on groundwater levels remains poorly understood. Here, we used the validated APEX model to assess how 30 years (1994–2023) of adopting alternative rotations, including a novel spring peanut→winter wheat–summer maize system, affect crop production and groundwater dynamics in the North China Plain. We found that the conventional winter wheat–summer maize (WM) system, despite its high yield (11.1–14.6 Mg ha−1), caused an unsustainable groundwater decline of 0.7 m yr−1 under full irrigation. In contrast, alternative systems not only reduced evapotranspiration by 12–49% but also mitigated this decline by 47–77%. Notably, the spring peanut→WM rotation maintained yields comparable to WM under limited irrigation while nearly halting groundwater depletion. Our results demonstrate that adopting optimized irrigation and cropping intensity, such as WM under minimum irrigation or spring peanut→WM under critical irrigation, can reduce the decline rate to 0.24 and 0.04 m yr−1, respectively. This study provides a quantitative framework for balancing crop production with groundwater sustainability, highlighting alternative systems as an effective strategy to mitigate water crises in agricultural regions worldwide.
Zhao et al. (Fri,) studied this question.