Drivers of greenhouse gas emissions during Morocco’s energy transition using an ARDL time series analysis

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Morocco, a country that has recently recorded an improvement in national economic growth, reaching 5.5% in the second quarter of 2025 (HCP, 24). However, the country faces a growing dependence on fossil fuels, amounting to 90.36% according to the Ministry of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development (MEM, 33), and the share of renewable energy in the national energy mix remains limited despite significant efforts. In a global context marked by ecological crisis and economic challenges, which urges developing countries to adopt more resilient models, Morocco continues to rely heavily on fossil fuel imports, the main sources of pollution and environmental imbalance. This situation calls for an examination of how the drivers behind this strong dependence and the growth-related factors contribute to GHG emissions? To this end, the research employs an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, a methodological approach still rarely used in the Moroccan context, enabling the assessment of both short- and long-term relationships among the variables under study. The results show that fossil fuel consumption and economic growth are the primary drivers of rising GHG emissions. In contrast, the share of renewable energy has no statistically significant effect on emission reduction, underscoring its still marginal role in the country’s energy transition. Furthermore, the analysis reveals strong inertia in emissions, which remain locked into historical trajectories and adjust only slowly to new dynamics. These findings highlight the urgent need to implement more ambitious and coherent energy policies aligned with climate objectives. Beyond accelerating the adoption of clean energy sources, Morocco must establish effective mitigation mechanisms, strengthen regulatory and fiscal instruments, and address structural lock-ins that maintain high emission levels. Such measures are essential to break the cycle of persistent emissions and guide the country toward a more resilient and sustainable development trajectory.