Climate Feedback Manifold: A Geometric Approach to Time-Varying λ–κ Dynamics (1880–2025)

Key Points

• To estimate the time-varying feedback parameter λ and forcing intercept κ in climate models.
• Used sliding-window linear regression for estimation.
• Analyzed temperature anomaly data from NASA GISTEMP v4.
• Utilized a composite radiative forcing record including NOAA AGGI and Law Dome CO₂ data.
• Demonstrated that λ and κ dynamics vary over time rather than remaining constant.
• Provided evidence of improved fit for climate models when incorporating time-varying feedback parameters.