Persistent droughts and shifting precipitation regimes continue to threaten water security across the United States, with arid and semi-arid regions remaining the most vulnerable. This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of aridity and water scarcity across drought-prone stations (111) and regions of the U.S. using 30 years (1991–2020) of precipitation records from xmACIS II. Weather stations were categorized into arid (20 inches/year) zones, revealing a distinct west–east gradient: arid and semi-arid conditions prevail across the western and central U.S., while the eastern regions remain largely non-arid. Drought frequency analysis spanning 2000–2019 indicates that certain regions experienced exceptional drought conditions (D3 or higher) for more than 50% of the study period, with localized areas enduring over 300 weeks of extreme drought. Long-term precipitation trends (1920–2020) in Texas, Washington, and South Dakota reflect a modest increase in precipitation; however, CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections under a 2 °C and 4 °C warming scenario point to divergent future trajectories, with some regions experiencing increased wetness while others face progressive drying. These findings offer actionable insights for drought monitoring and climate adaptation strategies, underscoring the heightened vulnerability of arid and semi-arid zones to intensify water scarcity.
Escobar et al. (Sun,) studied this question.
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