"background": "Access to reliable and affordable energy is a critical constraint for agricultural productivity and rural development in sub-Saharan Africa. While off-grid energy systems are increasingly deployed, robust methodological frameworks for evaluating their cost-effectiveness in real-world settings are lacking. ", "purpose and objectives": "This study develops and applies a diagnostic framework to measure the cost-effectiveness of diverse off-grid energy systems supporting agricultural activities in rural communities. It aims to identify key technical, economic, and social determinants of cost-effectiveness. ", "methodology": "A multilevel regression analysis was conducted on primary data from a sample of off-grid systems, including solar mini-grids and standalone solar installations. The core model is specified as: -Effectiveness{ij = \0 + \1Xij + +, where i denotes systems nested within communities j. Robust standard errors were used for inference. ", "findings": "System capacity and the degree of community co-management were significant positive predictors of cost-effectiveness. Specifically, a 1 kW increase in capacity was associated with a 12. 3% improvement in cost-effectiveness (95% CI: 8. 1, 16. 5). Diesel hybrid systems demonstrated significantly lower cost-effectiveness compared to purely solar systems. ", "conclusion": "The multilevel diagnostic approach provides a nuanced assessment of cost-effectiveness, revealing that both technical scale and governance structures are critical for economic sustainability. Solely technical or financial evaluations are insufficient. ", "recommendations": "Policymakers and project developers should prioritise capacity-building for community co-management structures alongside technical investments. Future energy access programmes should integrate diagnostic frameworks like the one presented for monitoring and evaluation. ", "key words": "cost-effectiveness analysis, multilevel modelling, off-grid energy, rural electrification, agricultural development, Rwanda", "contribution statement": "This paper provides a novel diagnostic methodology combining technical and socio-economic variables within a multilevel regression framework, offering a
Jean de Dieu Uwimana (Sun,) studied this question.