How Sustainable Is Arctic Route Diversification? Economic Losses, SDG Trade-Offs, and Supply Chain Resilience in the 2026 Hormuz Crisis

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026 disrupted approximately 20 million barrels (bbl) per day of crude oil transit, constituting the largest supply shock in global oil market history. This study quantifies the resulting economic losses under three blockade-duration scenarios and evaluates the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a partial mitigation mechanism through a novel framework integrating sustainable supply chain resilience (SSCR), the Triple Bottom Line (TBL), and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A 3 × 3 scenario matrix crossing three blockade durations with three NSR utilization levels estimates global and country-level impacts using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Centre for High North Logistics (CHNL). Even under maximum feasible NSR utilization, net environmentally adjustment mitigation offsets only 1.1–3.6% of total global losses, demonstrating that the Northern Sea Route functions as marginal insurance rather than a viable substitute for Hormuz-dependent supply chains. Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses range from USD 330 billion to USD 2.2 trillion, with South Korea (68–70% Middle East crude dependency) and Japan (approximately 95%) disproportionately affected. After TBL environmentally adjustment monetizing CO2, black-carbon, and icebreaker costs, the NSR mitigates 1.1–3.6% of total losses, functioning as insurance rather than substitution. The SDG assessment reveals a fundamental trade-off: the NSR offsets energy-security losses (SDGs 7, 9) but worsens climate and marine outcomes (SDGs 13, 14). Theoretically, this study proposes “alternative maritime route availability” as a conceptual extension of supply chain resilience (SCRes) capabilities and outlines a sustainability-adjusted resilience score (SARS) framework that, pending further validation, could serve as a replicable assessment tool. These findings underscore that accelerating the energy transition remains the most effective long-term response to chokepoint vulnerability.