Abstract Stratospheric ozone (O 3 ) losses and consequent increases in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation remain a health concern due to close association with skin cancers and cataracts. This study estimated how emissions of ozone‐depleting substances (ODS) affect, via O 3 reductions, surface UV radiation and associated health impacts in Australia compared to the United States. We used climatological atmospheric data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Atmospheric Health Effects Framework (AHEF) model to estimate these effects for historic and projected ODS emissions. Compared to the United States, the Australian population is potentially exposed to ca. 24% more biologically weighted UV radiation because of the closer proximity of its population to the equator, less stratospheric O 3 at comparable latitudes, and seasonal variations in the Earth‐Sun distance. Surface UV increments owing to ODS‐caused stratospheric O 3 depletion were largest in the 1990s, while the estimated health impacts peak several decades later at ca. 0.5% for cataracts, 1% for melanoma incidence, and 5% for keratinocyte cancer incidence (relative to 1980), and are similar in both countries. The study found that differences in population‐weighted surface UV can only partly explain Australia's substantially higher incidence and mortality rates for UV‐related maladies. Other factors like genetic susceptibility of skin types, exposure behaviors, and diagnosis practices likely play a role.
Lee-Taylor et al. (Fri,) studied this question.