This research evaluates the agricultural and food-related trade effects of the Oman–India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) using product-level partial-equilibrium simulations implemented through the Trade Intelligence and Negotiation Adviser (TINA) platform. The results based on 2024 trade data indicate asymmetric outcomes. While both partners experience trade gains (\567 million for Oman and \656 million for India), Oman's export expansion to India is highly concentrated in a small number of energy and chemical products, whereas India's exports to Oman increase across a wide range of tariff lines, including several food products. In agriculture, CEPA primarily reinforces India's role as a key agri-food supplier to Oman, with notable gains in animal products, dairy inputs, and processed foods. Oman's food exports to India remain limited, with date fruits showing the most significant relative increase potential. Overall, the findings suggest that CEPA strengthens existing trade patterns rather than inducing diversification, highlighting the importance of complementary policies beyond tariff liberalization to support food security and balanced trade outcomes.
Gülseven et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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