What does this research mean for the field?

The convergence of independent, uncoordinated causal chains can be modally fragile even if each component event is modally stable, thereby resolving Lackey's Buried Treasure challenge and defending modal views of luck. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.CONTRADICTORY. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.SUPPORTS_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To explore the relationship between modal views of luck and the challenges posed by Lackey's Buried Treasure cases.

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May 28, 2026

Modal Luck and Buried Treasure

Key Points

To explore the relationship between modal views of luck and the challenges posed by Lackey's Buried Treasure cases.
Analyzed the assumptions underlying modal luck and Lackey's Buried Treasure cases
Evaluated the interaction between independent events and their modal stability
Examined the implications for current modal luck theories.
Demonstrated the flawed assumption that the conjunction of modally stable events is always modally stable
Showed that independent, uncoordinated events can result in modal fragility despite individual stability
Reestablished a foundation for modal views of luck against typical critiques.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Modal views of luck, influential in epistemology, hold that luck is characterized by modal fragility. They face a well‐known challenge: Lackey's Buried Treasure cases, which suggest that an event can be both lucky and modally stable. I argue that this challenge assumes that if two events are each modally stable, their conjunction is also modally stable. This assumption fails for conjunctions of independent, contingent events. When component events arise from independent, uncoordinated causal chains, their convergence can be modally fragile even though each component is modally stable. This handles Buried Treasure and reestablishes the plausibility of modal views of luck.

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