Modal Luck and Buried Treasure

Modal views of luck, influential in epistemology, hold that luck is characterized by modal fragility. They face a well‐known challenge: Lackey's Buried Treasure cases, which suggest that an event can be both lucky and modally stable. I argue that this challenge assumes that if two events are each modally stable, their conjunction is also modally stable. This assumption fails for conjunctions of independent, contingent events. When component events arise from independent, uncoordinated causal chains, their convergence can be modally fragile even though each component is modally stable. This handles Buried Treasure and reestablishes the plausibility of modal views of luck.