Introduction Amidst the continued expansion of higher education in China, this study investigates the correlational trends and urban-rural disparities in the returns to higher education from 2012 to 2021. Methods Using data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) for the years 2012 and 2021, this correlation study employed three analytical approaches: ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for baseline estimates, propensity score matching (PSM) to adjust for observable characteristics, and quantile regression to examine distributional effects. Results The findings reveal that (1) The overall OLS-estimated correlational return to higher education remained relatively stable over the decade, shifting marginally from 52.3% to 50.7%. The premium for urban residents declined from 55.8% to 51.8%, while the premium for rural residents increased from 44.5% to 50.7%. (2) After PSM adjustment, higher education showed a stronger positive association with income for urban residents in 2012; however, by 2021, this correlation surged for rural residents, surpassing that of their urban counterparts. (3) Quantile regression indicates that higher education is associated with narrower income disparities within rural populations, while it correlates with wider income gaps among urban populations. Additionally, the middle-income quantiles in both urban and rural areas exhibited stagnant growth in higher education premiums. Discussion National average returns remained stable, but significant urban-rural divergence emerged. Rural returns converged with and then surpassed urban returns by 2021, indicating shifting labor market dynamics and improved rural graduate outcomes. Higher education narrowed within-rural income disparities while widening within-urban gaps. The stagnation of middle-income quantile returns warrants further investigation.
Hu et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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