Climate–yield interactions in West Africa: Machine learning insights for cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire

Cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire is threatened by climate variability and extremes, particularly droughts and excessive rainfall. However, quantitative evidence on the impacts of climate change on cocoa yields remains limited, constraining the development of effective climate-smart adaptation strategies. This study assessed future climate impacts on cocoa production using regridded (~5 km resolution) ensemble projections from 12 Global Climate Models under a low (SSP1-2.6) and a high (SSP5-8.5) SSP scenario. Precipitation and temperature data were bias-corrected using five approaches: Delta Change, CDFt, SDM, EQM, and LOCI. Among these, the Delta Change method best preserved intra-annual climate variability, while temperature corrections outperformed precipitation corrections. A Random Forest model, trained on bias-corrected climate data, simulated and projected cocoa yields with an accuracy exceeding 85%, although performance varied across regions. Future changes were assessed for the near future (2026–2055) and far future (2056–2085) relative to a historical baseline (1985–2014). Ensemble projections indicate a drying trend across cocoa-growing areas, with precipitation declining by 5–10% under SSP5-8.5 and increasing modestly (around 5%) under SSP1-2.6. At the same time, temperatures are projected to rise across all regions, exceeding 3.5°C under SSP5-8.5 by the late century, particularly in central and northern zones. Projected yield responses vary spatially. Southern and coastal cocoa-growing areas are expected to experience yield declines of about 5%, with losses reaching up to 20% under severe drought conditions in highly vulnerable regions such as Dix-Huit Montagnes in Côte d’Ivoire under SSP5-8.5. In contrast, some northern and central regions may maintain or slightly increase yields under SSP1-2.6. Vulnerability is shaped by climatic, biophysical, and socio-economic factors, with regions such as Sud-Comoé (Côte d’Ivoire) and Brong Ahafo (Ghana) identified as at risk. These findings highlight the need for targeted adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of West Africa’s cocoa sector.