Modeling the Invisible Threat: Software-Assisted Assessment of Landfill Leachate Impacts to Receiving Water Bodies

Landfill leachate represents a long-term source of contamination that may significantly affect groundwater and receiving water bodies through the migration of organic, inorganic, and toxic pollutants. This study evaluated the long-term migration of landfill leachate and its potential environmental impacts using the LandSim Release 2 probabilistic software model applied to two municipal waste landfills in the Republic of Serbia: the regional sanitary landfill “Gigoš” in Jagodina and the sanitary landfill “Meteris” in Vranje. The modelling framework integrated laboratory leachate analyses, hydrogeological conditions, engineered barrier system characteristics, and receptor-oriented contaminant transport assessment. Model validation was performed through comparison of simulated and laboratory-measured concentrations. Two scenarios were analyzed for each site: an engineered sanitary landfill scenario with a functional containment system and a conservative barrier-failure scenario representing complete loss of engineered barrier functionality. Ten representative leachate parameters were included, covering nitrogen compounds, inorganic ions, toxic substances, and heavy metals/metalloids. The results showed that engineered protection systems significantly delay contaminant migration and reduce receptor concentrations, while barrier-failure conditions lead to earlier pollutant breakthrough and higher environmental risk. The simulations demonstrated that under the engineered sanitary landfill scenario, receptor concentrations of all analyzed contaminants remained below the corresponding maximum allowable concentrations, with contaminant migration occurring only after several centuries. In contrast, the conservative barrier-failure scenario resulted in substantially earlier contaminant breakthrough, with nitrogen compounds and phenols representing the greatest environmental concern due to their rapid migration and exceedance of regulatory thresholds, while the “Meteris” landfill generally exhibited higher receptor concentrations than the “Gigoš” landfill. These findings highlight the importance of predictive modelling and long-term monitoring for sustainable landfill management and groundwater protection.