Organoid Intelligence (OI) is the use of lab-grown biological neural tissue as a substrate for learning, memory, and information processing, interfaced to digital electronics. This document presents a formal systems-dynamics meta-analysis of OI, merging four iterations of analysis (v1-v4) into a single unified, non-redundant master document (v5). The analysis contains: - A formal delay-differential equation (DDE) model of the hype↔evidence subsystem- The Overshoot Theorem: mathematical proof that boom-bust cycles are guaranteed by the replication delay structure (ατᵣep > π/2) - The Credibility Kernel: super-linear cascading distrust where the second failed replication collapses credibility by ~90%- Labor Saturation: workforce bottleneck with a ~10-year training delay- The Valley of Death Theorem: winner-take-all capital competition with neuromorphic silicon, producing a phase-transition collapse within ~2-5 years Core findings: 1. The "compute successor" branch is structurally doomed by secular competition with manufacturable silicon2. The pharmaceutical and scientific instrument branch is insulated and robust (DROIDp, 2026) 3. The highest-leverage intervention is changing the goal from "compute" to "pharma probe"4. OI is a valuable near-term pharmaceutical and scientific instrument, not a general-purpose computing platform The document provides a complete falsification protocol with 10 decision-relevant indicators, a probability ensemble (57/24/7/7), and strategic prescriptions for funders, policymakers, and researchers.
Denis Anastasiev Dragnev (Sat,) studied this question.